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Goldman Sachs cuts its China GDP forecast to 4% on Covid controls
  • Goldman Sachs analysts have cut their China GDP forecast to 4% from 4.5% after weak data in April.
  • The bank does not expect China will start fully easing Covid controls before the second quarter of 2023.
  • On Monday, Citi — which had one of the highest China GDP forecasts — cut its outlook for growth to 4.2% from 5.1%.

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BEIJING — Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday cut their forecast for China’s GDP to 4% after data for April showed a slump in growth as Covid-19 controls restricted business activity.

The new forecast is even further below the “around 5.5%” growth target the Chinese government announced for the year in March.

“Given the Q2 Covid-related damage to the economy, we now expect China’s growth to be 4% this year (vs. 4.5% previously),” Hui Shan and a team at Goldman wrote in a report Wednesday. That prediction assumes there will be significant government support, on top of measures to stabilize the property market and control Covid outbreaks.

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