10-03-2023, 11:55 AM
FRESHFOREX BIRTHDAY CHALLENGE — SWEET 19!
![[Image: dc1c0fb21babdb12524174fa1250bec5.png]](https://freshforex.com/netcat_files/Image/dc1c0fb21babdb12524174fa1250bec5.png)
Dear clients,
FreshForex is celebrating its 19th birthday!
So we're having a challenge with 119 prizes totaling $119,000. The grand prize is $30,000!
guaranteed bonus for completing 30 tasks.
Earn points, and win prizes!
Here's what to do:
1. Register.
2. Complete tasks.
3. Become the best!
19 prizes await everyone who earns 19 points!
Details at FB, IG and TG-channel.
Win your prize!
"THE END OF AN ERA."
![[Image: f1beb48a2e9dc9eaee8f223bcc360549.png]](https://freshforex.com/netcat_files/Image/f1beb48a2e9dc9eaee8f223bcc360549.png)
Dear clients,
The US bond market is marking the occasion: the era of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis is over. What will follow is still unclear.
That market view has become clearer in recent days amid a surge in 10-year Treasury yields to a 16-year high.
According to investors and the New York Fed's regularly updated yield-based model, the betting behind the move is that the disinflationary processes that the Federal Reserve has fought with easy-money policies since the financial crisis have tapered off.
Instead, investors believe investors have concluded that the U.S. economy is probably now in what one regional Fed chairman described as a "high-pressure equilibrium" characterised by inflation above the Fed's 2% target, low unemployment and positive growth.
This important shift in the outlook for rates has profound implications for policymakers, businesses, and the public. The shift to higher and more protracted rates could be painful and manifest itself in failed business models, unaffordable homes and cars. It could also force the Fed to keep raising rates until another failure occurs, as the three regional US banks did in March.
The Fed's market model for decomposing the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides additional insight into investors' thinking.
In recent days, one component of yields — a measure of the reward investors demand for lending money for the long term — turned positive for the first time since June 2021, according to the ACM model.
The rise in the short-term rate also reflects confidence that structural shifts - from de-globalisation to declining productivity and an aging population - have raised the elusive theoretical interest rate at which growth neither accelerates nor slows and full employment exists at stable prices. It is called the neutral rate, or r-star.
While the market seems confident that the era of zero interest rates is over, it is much less confident about the real prospects for the economy.
The neutral rate, for example, determines whether the Fed Funds rate will slow or stimulate the economy, but no one really knows what the rate is really like until something breaks. Estimates vary widely.
The era of uncertainty has also arrived among monetary policymakers. A San Francisco Fed survey in August, which developed an index to gauge the level of disagreement among policymakers about their economic forecasts, showed that by June it had risen to a level higher than the pre-pandemic average.
Dear clients,
FreshForex is celebrating its 19th birthday!
So we're having a challenge with 119 prizes totaling $119,000. The grand prize is $30,000!
guaranteed bonus for completing 30 tasks.
Earn points, and win prizes!
Here's what to do:
1. Register.
2. Complete tasks.
3. Become the best!
19 prizes await everyone who earns 19 points!
Details at FB, IG and TG-channel.
Win your prize!
"THE END OF AN ERA."
Dear clients,
The US bond market is marking the occasion: the era of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis is over. What will follow is still unclear.
That market view has become clearer in recent days amid a surge in 10-year Treasury yields to a 16-year high.
According to investors and the New York Fed's regularly updated yield-based model, the betting behind the move is that the disinflationary processes that the Federal Reserve has fought with easy-money policies since the financial crisis have tapered off.
Instead, investors believe investors have concluded that the U.S. economy is probably now in what one regional Fed chairman described as a "high-pressure equilibrium" characterised by inflation above the Fed's 2% target, low unemployment and positive growth.
This important shift in the outlook for rates has profound implications for policymakers, businesses, and the public. The shift to higher and more protracted rates could be painful and manifest itself in failed business models, unaffordable homes and cars. It could also force the Fed to keep raising rates until another failure occurs, as the three regional US banks did in March.
The Fed's market model for decomposing the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides additional insight into investors' thinking.
In recent days, one component of yields — a measure of the reward investors demand for lending money for the long term — turned positive for the first time since June 2021, according to the ACM model.
The rise in the short-term rate also reflects confidence that structural shifts - from de-globalisation to declining productivity and an aging population - have raised the elusive theoretical interest rate at which growth neither accelerates nor slows and full employment exists at stable prices. It is called the neutral rate, or r-star.
While the market seems confident that the era of zero interest rates is over, it is much less confident about the real prospects for the economy.
The neutral rate, for example, determines whether the Fed Funds rate will slow or stimulate the economy, but no one really knows what the rate is really like until something breaks. Estimates vary widely.
The era of uncertainty has also arrived among monetary policymakers. A San Francisco Fed survey in August, which developed an index to gauge the level of disagreement among policymakers about their economic forecasts, showed that by June it had risen to a level higher than the pre-pandemic average.