Fed GDP tracker shows the economy could be on the brink of a recession

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• The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker is now pointing to an annualized gain of just 0.9% for the second quarter, down from an estimated 1.3% increase less than a week ago.
  
• With first-quarter growth down 1.5%, a second consecutive quarter of negative growth meets a rule-of-thumb definition for recession.
  
• The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter, says a recession can include two straight negative GDP prints, but that’s not necessarily the case.
  

A widely followed Federal Reserve gauge is indicating that the U.S. economy could be headed for a second consecutive quarter of negative growth, meeting a rule-of-thumb definition for a recession.

In an update posted Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is now pointing to an annualized gain of just 0.9% for the second quarter.

Following a 1.5% drop in the first three months of the year, the indicator is showing the economy doesn’t have much further to go before it slides into what many consider a recession.

GDPNow follows economic data in real time and uses it to project the way the economy is heading. Tuesday’s data, combined with other recent releases, resulted in the model downgrading what had been an estimate of 1.3% growth as of June 1 to the new outlook for a 0.9% gain.

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