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In a biannual Joint Economic Forecast, published Wednesday, Germany’s biggest economic institutions reduced their GDP forecasts as the war in Ukraine slows the recovery from Covid-19.
The RWI in Essen, the DIW in Berlin, the Ifo Institute in Munich, the IfW in Kiel and the IWH in Halle now expect German GDP to grow by 2.7% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2023.
“If gas supplies were to be cut off, the German economy would undergo a sharp recession,” said Stefan Kooths, research director for business cycles and growth at the Kiel Institute.

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German economists are forecasting a recession in Europe’s largest economy if Russian gas supplies were to stop, and the effects could spread through the continent.

In their biannual Joint Economic Forecast, published Wednesday, Germany’s five biggest economic institutions sharply reduced their gross domestic product forecasts as the war in Ukraine slows the recovery from Covid-19.

The RWI in Essen, the DIW in Berlin, the Ifo Institute in Munich, the IfW in Kiel and the IWH in Halle now expect German GDP to grow by 2.7% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2023, assuming that there is no further economic escalation related to the war in Ukraine and gas flows to Europe from Russia continue. The institutes had previously projected growth of 4.8% in 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the European Parliament have called for the European Union to impose a total embargo on Russian oil, gas and coal imports in light of atrocities against civilians by Russian forces in Ukraine.

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